{"id":70860,"date":"2025-10-27T13:52:36","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T11:52:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/?p=70860"},"modified":"2025-10-27T13:52:46","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T11:52:46","slug":"the-decrease-in-confidence-with-forecast-extremity-international-journal-of-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/the-decrease-in-confidence-with-forecast-extremity-international-journal-of-forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0397 \u03bc\u03b5\u03af\u03c9\u03c3\u03b7 \u03c4\u03b7\u03c2 \u03b5\u03bc\u03c0\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03bf\u03c3\u03cd\u03bd\u03b7\u03c2 \u03bc\u03b5 \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03c0\u03c1\u03cc\u03b2\u03bb\u03b5\u03c8\u03b7 \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 \u03ac\u03ba\u03c1\u03bf\u03c5. International Journal of Forecasting.\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u03a0\u03b5\u03c1\u03af\u03bb\u03b7\u03c8\u03b7<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0388\u03bd\u03b1\u03c2 \u03bc\u03b5\u03b3\u03ac\u03bb\u03bf\u03c2 \u03c0\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03ba\u03b1\u03c2 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03b2\u03bb\u03ad\u03c8\u03b5\u03c9\u03bd \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03bf\u03b9\u03ba\u03bf\u03bd\u03bf\u03bc\u03b9\u03ba\u03ce\u03bd \u03b4\u03b9\u03b5\u03c5\u03b8\u03c5\u03bd\u03c4\u03ce\u03bd \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1 \u03c4\u03b9\u03c2 \u03b5\u03c4\u03ae\u03c3\u03b9\u03b5\u03c2 \u03b1\u03c0\u03bf\u03b4\u03cc\u03c3\u03b5\u03b9\u03c2 \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 S&amp;P 500 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c4\u03ad\u03c3\u03c3\u03b5\u03c1\u03b1 \u03c0\u03b5\u03b9\u03c1\u03ac\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b1 \u03b4\u03b5\u03af\u03c7\u03bd\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03cc\u03c4\u03b9 \u03b7 \u03b5\u03bc\u03c0\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03bf\u03c3\u03cd\u03bd\u03b7 \u03c3\u03c4\u03b9\u03c2 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03b2\u03bb\u03ad\u03c8\u03b5\u03b9\u03c2 \u03bc\u03b5\u03b9\u03ce\u03bd\u03b5\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b8\u03ce\u03c2 \u03bf\u03b9 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03b2\u03bb\u03ad\u03c8\u03b5\u03b9\u03c2 \u03b1\u03c0\u03bf\u03ba\u03bb\u03af\u03bd\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03c4\u03bf \u03bc\u03b7\u03b4\u03ad\u03bd, \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03c2 \u03c4\u03b7 \u03b8\u03b5\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u03ae \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03b1\u03c1\u03bd\u03b7\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u03ba\u03b1\u03c4\u03b5\u03cd\u03b8\u03c5\u03bd\u03c3\u03b7. \u0391\u03c5\u03c4\u03ae \u03b7 \u03bc\u03b5\u03b9\u03c9\u03bc\u03ad\u03bd\u03b7 \u03b5\u03bc\u03c0\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03bf\u03c3\u03cd\u03bd\u03b7 \u03b1\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03bd\u03b1\u03ba\u03bb\u03ac\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c3\u03b5 \u03bc\u03b5\u03b3\u03b1\u03bb\u03cd\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03b1 \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03c3\u03c4\u03ae\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b1 \u03c0\u03c1\u03cc\u03b2\u03bb\u03b5\u03c8\u03b7\u03c2, \u03bc\u03b5\u03b3\u03b1\u03bb\u03cd\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03b5\u03c2 \u03b5\u03ba\u03c4\u03b9\u03bc\u03ae\u03c3\u03b5\u03b9\u03c2 \u03b1\u03bd\u03c4\u03b9\u03bb\u03b1\u03bc\u03b2\u03b1\u03bd\u03cc\u03bc\u03b5\u03bd\u03b7\u03c2 \u03bc\u03b5\u03c4\u03b1\u03b2\u03bb\u03b7\u03c4\u03cc\u03c4\u03b7\u03c4\u03b1\u03c2 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03b1\u03c3\u03b8\u03b5\u03bd\u03ad\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03b7 \u03c0\u03af\u03c3\u03c4\u03b7 \u03c3\u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03b1\u03ba\u03c1\u03af\u03b2\u03b5\u03b9\u03b1 \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03b2\u03bb\u03ad\u03c8\u03b5\u03c9\u03bd.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0169207024000712?via%3Dihub#b24\">De Bondt<\/a>\u2019s (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0169207024000712?via%3Dihub#b24\">1993<\/a>) \u03b7 \u03b1\u03bd\u03c4\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03ac\u03b8\u03bc\u03b9\u03c3\u03b7 \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03b2\u03bb\u03ad\u03c8\u03b5\u03c9\u03bd \u03b5\u03bd\u03c4\u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b5\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03bc\u03b5 \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03b1\u03ba\u03c1\u03cc\u03c4\u03b7\u03c4\u03b1 \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03b2\u03bb\u03ad\u03c8\u03b5\u03c9\u03bd, \u03b1\u03bb\u03bb\u03ac \u03b7 \u03bc\u03b5\u03af\u03c9\u03c3\u03b7 \u03c4\u03b7\u03c2 \u03b5\u03bc\u03c0\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03bf\u03c3\u03cd\u03bd\u03b7\u03c2 \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03c4\u03b7\u03c1\u03b5\u03af\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03cc\u03c4\u03b1\u03bd \u03c4\u03b1 \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03c3\u03c4\u03ae\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b1 \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c3\u03c5\u03bc\u03bc\u03b5\u03c4\u03c1\u03b9\u03ba\u03ac. \u0395\u03c0\u03b9\u03b2\u03ac\u03bb\u03bb\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03c2 \u03c3\u03c9\u03c1\u03b5\u03c5\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ad\u03c2 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03c4\u03b9\u03bc\u03ae\u03c3\u03b5\u03b9\u03c2 \u03c4\u03b7\u03c2 \u03b8\u03b5\u03c9\u03c1\u03af\u03b1\u03c2 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03bf\u03c0\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ce\u03bd \u03c3\u03c4\u03bf\u03c5\u03c2 CFOs, \u03bf\u03b9 \u03ad\u03bb\u03b5\u03b3\u03c7\u03bf\u03b9 \u03bc\u03b5\u03c4\u03b1\u03c4\u03c1\u03bf\u03c0\u03ae\u03c2 \u03b4\u03b5\u03af\u03c7\u03bd\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03cc\u03c4\u03b9 \u03b7 \u03bc\u03b5\u03b9\u03c9\u03bc\u03ad\u03bd\u03b7 \u03b5\u03bc\u03c0\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03bf\u03c3\u03cd\u03bd\u03b7 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b8\u03c5\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03b5\u03af \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03b1\u03bd\u03c4\u03af\u03b4\u03c1\u03b1\u03c3\u03b7 \u03c3\u03c4\u03b9\u03c2 \u03b1\u03b9\u03c3\u03b9\u03cc\u03b4\u03bf\u03be\u03b5\u03c2 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03c3\u03b4\u03bf\u03ba\u03af\u03b5\u03c2 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03bc\u03b5\u03c4\u03c1\u03b9\u03ac\u03b6\u03b5\u03b9 \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03b5\u03c3\u03c6\u03b1\u03bb\u03bc\u03ad\u03bd\u03b7 \u03b2\u03b1\u03b8\u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03cc\u03bc\u03b7\u03c3\u03b7, \u03b1\u03bd \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03bf\u03b9 \u03b1\u03b9\u03c3\u03b9\u03cc\u03b4\u03bf\u03be\u03bf\u03b9 CFOs \u03b5\u03be\u03b1\u03ba\u03bf\u03bb\u03bf\u03c5\u03b8\u03bf\u03cd\u03bd \u03bd\u03b1 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03b5\u03be\u03bf\u03c6\u03bb\u03bf\u03cd\u03bd \u03c4\u03bf\u03bd VIX \u03ba\u03b1\u03c4\u03ac \u03c0\u03b5\u03c1\u03b9\u03c3\u03c3\u03cc\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03bf \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc 50%. \u0397 \u03b5\u03c1\u03b3\u03b1\u03c3\u03af\u03b1 \u03b1\u03c0\u03bf\u03ba\u03b1\u03bb\u03cd\u03c0\u03c4\u03b5\u03b9 \u03ad\u03c4\u03c3\u03b9 \u03ad\u03bd\u03b1\u03bd \u03b1\u03c5\u03c4\u03bf\u03b4\u03b9\u03bf\u03c1\u03b8\u03c9\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc \u03bc\u03b7\u03c7\u03b1\u03bd\u03b9\u03c3\u03bc\u03cc \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03b1\u03bd\u03c4\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03b1\u03b8\u03bc\u03af\u03b6\u03b5\u03b9 \u03b5\u03bd \u03bc\u03ad\u03c1\u03b5\u03b9, \u03b1\u03bb\u03bb\u03ac \u03ba\u03ac\u03b8\u03b5 \u03ac\u03bb\u03bb\u03bf \u03c0\u03b1\u03c1\u03ac \u03c0\u03bb\u03ae\u03c1\u03c9\u03c2, \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5\u03c2 \u03ba\u03b9\u03bd\u03b4\u03cd\u03bd\u03bf\u03c5\u03c2 \u03c5\u03c0\u03b5\u03c1\u03b2\u03bf\u03bb\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae\u03c2 \u03b5\u03bc\u03c0\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03bf\u03c3\u03cd\u03bd\u03b7\u03c2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sonsino, D., &amp; Roth, Y. (2025).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-buttons uagb-buttons__outer-wrap uagb-btn__default-btn uagb-btn-tablet__default-btn uagb-btn-mobile__default-btn uagb-block-c8551a6b\"><div class=\"uagb-buttons__wrap uagb-buttons-layout-wrap\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-uagb-buttons-child uagb-buttons__outer-wrap uagb-block-3504d19b wp-block-button\"><div class=\"uagb-button__wrapper\"><a class=\"uagb-buttons-repeater wp-block-button__link\" aria-label=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0169207024000712?via%3Dihub\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" role=\"button\"><div class=\"uagb-button__link\">\u03bc\u03ac\u03b8\u03b5\u03c4\u03b5 \u03c0\u03b5\u03c1\u03b9\u03c3\u03c3\u03cc\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03b1<\/div><span class=\"uagb-button__icon uagb-button__icon-position-after\"><svg xmlns=\"https:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 448 512\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focussable=\"false\"><path d=\"M438.6 278.6l-160 160C272.4 444.9 264.2 448 256 448s-16.38-3.125-22.62-9.375c-12.5-12.5-12.5-32.75 0-45.25L338.8 288H32C14.33 288 .0016 273.7 .0016 256S14.33 224 32 224h306.8l-105.4-105.4c-12.5-12.5-12.5-32.75 0-45.25s32.75-12.5 45.25 0l160 160C451.1 245.9 451.1 266.1 438.6 278.6z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Abstract A large panel of chief financial officers\u2019 forecasts of the S&amp;P 500 annual returns and four experiments suggest that forecast confidence decreases as the forecasts diverge from zero, in the positive or negative direction. This decreased confidence is reflected in longer forecast intervals, larger perceived volatility estimates, and weaker belief in the accuracy of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":69156,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"publication_author":[194],"publication_year":[189],"class_list":["post-70860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-publications","publication_author-doron-sonsino","publication_year-189"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/3a_dr_doron-_sonsino.jpg","uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/3a_dr_doron-_sonsino.jpg",1200,628,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/3a_dr_doron-_sonsino-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/3a_dr_doron-_sonsino-300x157.jpg",300,157,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/3a_dr_doron-_sonsino-768x402.jpg",768,402,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/3a_dr_doron-_sonsino-1024x536.jpg",1024,536,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/3a_dr_doron-_sonsino.jpg",1200,628,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/3a_dr_doron-_sonsino.jpg",1200,628,false],"trp-custom-language-flag":["https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/3a_dr_doron-_sonsino-18x9.jpg",18,9,true]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"p.efstathiou@uol.ac.cy","author_link":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/author\/p-efstathiouuol-ac-cy\/"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"Abstract A large panel of chief financial officers\u2019 forecasts of the S&amp;P 500 annual returns and four experiments suggest that forecast confidence decreases as the forecasts diverge from zero, in the positive or negative direction. This decreased confidence is reflected in longer forecast intervals, larger perceived volatility estimates, and weaker belief in the accuracy of&hellip;","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/peAODB-iqU","publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-05-28 05:59:32","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70860","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70860"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70860\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/69156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70860"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70860"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70860"},{"taxonomy":"publication_author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_author?post=70860"},{"taxonomy":"publication_year","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.uol.ac.cy\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication_year?post=70860"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}