Crypto Expert Survey Project at the University of Limassol

Digital finance is one of the strategic priorities of the University of Limassol. The rapid evolution of financial technologies, including cryptocurrencies, decentralised systems, and blockchain-based solutions, is fundamentally transforming the global economic landscape. As digital assets become increasingly integrated into financial markets, the need for systematic monitoring, reliable indicators, and expert-based insights becomes critical.

Cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin in particular, represent an important component of this new financial ecosystem. However, the market remains relatively young, highly volatile, and strongly influenced by sentiment, narratives, and external macroeconomic factors. Traditional forecasting models often struggle to capture these dynamics. This is precisely why the Crypto Expert Survey Project* was launched.

The project aims to collect, aggregate, and analyse expectations of professionals working with cryptoassets and blockchain technologies. By focusing on expert sentiment rather than purely quantitative models, the survey provides a structured and nuanced view of market expectations, including downside and upside scenarios.

Bitcoin outlook to June 2026: what experts expected and what followed

In January 2026, the Crypto Expert Survey Project collected expectations from industry professionals regarding Bitcoin price dynamics over the next one and six months (see Figure below).

Figure: Bitcoin price scenario levels based on expert survey (Cyprus, Q1 2026) and subsequent market dynamics.

At the time of the survey (19–23 January 2026), Bitcoin was trading near $90,000. Based on aggregated expert responses, the expected price level for mid-February (one-month horizon) was approximately $91,909, with downside and upside scenarios ranging between $79,147 and $104,671. However, by mid-February, the actual market outcome diverged significantly from expectations. Bitcoin fell to around $66,000, moving well below even the lower bound of the forecast range and entering a scenario that experts had assigned a low probability.

Why were experts too optimistic?

The gap between expectations and reality can be largely attributed to the following aspects:

– unexpected developments in the February news cycle, which shifted market sentiment rapidly;

– global markets experienced renewed pressure driven by stronger-than-expected inflation signals, rising bond yields, delayed expectations of monetary easing.

As a result, investors reduced exposure to risk assets, including crypto.

What does this mean for Bitcoin forecasting?

Despite this short-term gap, the survey-based approach remains highly valuable. It reflects the sentiment of professional market participants, their view of the current situation, as well as potential risks, concerns, and expectations. This is important in the cryptocurrency market, where price dynamics are heavily influenced not only by fundamentals but also by sentiment, narratives, and exogenous shocks. Moreover, the survey provides insight into collective expert sentiment, which itself is a key driver of market behaviour. Even expectations of experts did not come true, they help explain how market participants interpret available information; which narratives dominate at a given point in time; where risks may be underestimated or overlooked.

The survey also provides a six-month outlook. According to expert expectations, by June 2026 Bitcoin is most likely to reach approximately $104,333, with an upper scenario of $135,728 and a lower scenario of $72,978. Whether these expectations will come true remains an open question

*About the Crypto Expert Survey Project

It is designed as an ongoing initiative to build a systematic understanding of expectations in digital finance markets. By conducting quarterly waves, the project aims to: track changes in expert sentiment over time; identify emerging trends and risk perceptions; create forward-looking indicators for the crypto market.

The project is implemented by the University of Limassol in cooperation with IU International University of Applied Sciences, combining academic rigour with industry expertise.

Invitation to participate

We invite professionals working with cryptoassets, blockchain, and digital finance to contribute their perspective to the next wave of the survey.

The next data collection round is scheduled for April 2026.

By participating, you will:

• contribute to a unique industry-wide dataset;
• receive quarterly reports and insights;
• gain access to aggregated expert expectations;
• become part of a growing digital finance research community.

For comments, feedback, or participation, please contact us at: crypto@uol.ac.cy